(Source: LuxuryBrandNetwork.com)

Luxury CEOs say the outlook for the fourth quarter and into 2009 is deteriorating rapidly.  Even the most optimistic--including LVMH, Coach and Burberry--see growth rates slowing.

Bulgari--CEO Francesco Trapani forecasts continued revenue growth, though at a more modest rate than previously planned.  Net profit for the full year is now projected to be lower than last year, though it should improve from the reported -22% through 30 September 2008.  Trapani noted "a still unsettled macroeconomic environment whose evolution is difficult to be predicted."

Tiffany--The company is "expecting U.S. comp store sales to decline 25-35%" for the fourth quarter.  Further, given "challenging" European and Asian markets, wordwide sales are projected to decline 13-20% compared to the prior year.  "It is impossible to know when consumer confidence will be restored," said CEO Michael Kowalski.

Burberry--Despite weakness at upscale department stores, for the two quarters ending 31 March 2009 Burberry expects to grow North American wholesale revenue with gains in market share.  Spain is predicted to decline by 20%, reflecting the economic environment and "ongoing contraction" of independent retailers.  For the quarter ending Dec 31, CEO Angela Ahrendts expects "trading conditions to remain volatile and uncertain."

Coach--On 21 October 2008 the company lowered sales growth estimates to 10% for the next three quarters, down from 13%.  The company maintained its previous per share earnings estimate.

LVMH--For the full year ending 31 December 2008, the company merely "confirms its objective of a tangible increase in its results."  With 75% of the year completed with organic revenue growth of 10%, even a dismal final quarter won't derail that objective.

Hermès--After continued growth through September, the company saw weakness in October and predicted a rough economic climate through the end of the year.  The company now expects full-year sales growth of 9-10%, down from the 14% it experienced through the first three quarters of its fiscal year.  Hermes now expects profits to be flat with the prior year.  "We see a general sales growth slowdown in all countries," Hermes Chief Executive Patrick Thomas told Reuters in an interview. "The toughest period will be between [mid-November] and Christmas."

Williams-Sonoma--Based on weakening demand for big-ticket items like the furniture sold by its Pottery Barn division, the company on 29 October 2008 lowered its revenue estimate for the fourth quarter by 18-20%.  Profit projections for the quarter were cut even more dramatically to between $.10 and $.30 per share, down from $.76 to $.86.

Liz Claiborne--A sharp decline in consumer spending and deep discounting at luxury and mid-tier retailers forced the company in late October to slash 2008 earnings estimates to between $1 and $1.10 per share, down from its previous estimate of $1.40 to $1.50.  "This isn't about our brands or our strategy," said CEO William McComb.  "This is about the consumer." The company's brands include Kate Spade, Juicy Couture and Mexx.

Hugo Boss--The Berlin-based fashion house lowered both sales and earnings estimates on 31 October 2008.  Revenue growth is now forecast at the low end of their previous 6-8% guidance, and earnings were trimmed from 8-10% growth to slightly negative.  "We are still optimistic but realistic," said spokesman Philipp Wolff. "We can bring this company forward. And with all the changes under way we are quite prepared. But one can't be naïve."

Tod's--After nine months with 10% growth (12% before currency exchange), Chairman and CEO Diego Della Valle expressed optimism through the year end:  "Even taking into consideration the current volatility of sales in the stores, I believe that our expectations to achieve growth both in net profit and sales are achievable, simply with an acceptable result for the forthcoming Christmas season."

Luxottica--Based on deterioration in the quarter ended 30 Sept 2008, Italian eyewear maker Luxottica Group revised downward its full-year earnings estimate.  For the calendar year, the company now expects earnings per share between €.96 and .98 versus previous guidance between €1.11 and 1.14.  Luxottica sells eyewear under multiple licenses including Salvatore Ferragamo, Prada, Bulgari, Burberry, Versace and Chanel.

Ann Taylor--Suggesting that the economy has put "additional pressure on the retail industry, in general, and the women's apparel sector, in particular," President and CEO Kay Krill reduced guidance on 6 Nov 2008 to breakeven for quarter just ended.  Looking ahead, Ann Taylor expects "the current weakness in consumer spending to persist through the fourth quarter of 2008 and into 2009."  Furthermore, the Company indicated that it expects the competitive environment to remain highly promotional and, coupled with a fourth quarter receipt plan that did not anticipate the magnitude of the current softness, it expects gross margin to remain under significant pressure.

Nordstrom--After disappointing results for the quarter ended 1 November 2008, the company lowered its full-year profit estimate by 26-27%.  Same store sales dropped 15.6% in the quarter.  Further, the company's policy of matching price cuts by competitors is expected to directly cut into profits for the critical hoilday season. 

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(Updated 26 November 2008)